{"id":37650,"date":"2024-11-20T14:18:42","date_gmt":"2024-11-20T11:18:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naqd.media\/?p=37650"},"modified":"2024-11-20T14:18:44","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T11:18:44","slug":"trumpian-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/old.naqd.media\/en\/trumpian-days\/","title":{"rendered":"Arabian Nights Trumpian Days: Trump\u2019s Middle East Playbook 2.0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>On November 5, 2024, the United States witnessed one of its most decisive elections in history. Not only will it have significant impacts on the American public, but its repercussions will reverberate across much of the world, most notably the Middle East, which has been plunged into devastating and destabilizing events since October 7, 2023. Many concerned observers are keen to see a change in the region and hope that the return of Donald Trump to the White House will achieve just that. From here, what is Trump\u2019s vision for the Middle East, and will he be able to fulfill his intended aspirations?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br><br>Not so long ago, Trump\u2019s playbook in the region crystalized at the end of his presidential term. On September 15, 2020, the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel signed historic agreements, known as the \u201cAbraham Accords Declaration,\u201d to normalize relations and end more than four decades of hostilities and enmity. It also marked the first normalization treaty since the Oslo Accords (1993\u20131995) between Israel and Palestine and the Wadi Araba Treaty (1994) between Israel and Jordan. Shortly after, Sudan and Morocco followed suit and signed their own peace treaties with Israel. These Arab countries would not have embarked on such a bold and influential course without receiving concrete guarantees and benefits\u2014not from Israel, but from the United States. For instance, on December 10, 2020, Washington proclaimed its recognition of Morocco\u2019s sovereignty over the Western Sahara, while on December 14, the U.S. Government announced Sudan\u2019s removal from the State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, Trump\u2019s administration linked normalization with economic prosperity and security in the Middle East. A perfect example of this policy was outlined in the 2023 \u201cIndia-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor,\u201d which included two Arab countries that normalized relations with Israel (UAE and Jordan), along with another major regional power on track to join the league: Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br>Regarding Israeli-Saudi relations, the two were on course to normalization, sponsored and mediated by the United States, if not for the \u201cAl-Aqsa Flood\u201d on October 7, 2023. Riyadh outlined its conditions for any peace treaty, which must include a U.S.-Saudi defense pact (similar to NATO\u2019s Article 5), the sale of advanced U.S. arms and warplanes to Saudi Arabia (most prominently the F-35 fighter jets), Washington\u2019s assistance in developing its own civilian nuclear program, and a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue as outlined in the 2002 \u201cArab Peace Initiative.\u201d The latter calls for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within its internationally recognized 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and the halting of all settlement projects, especially in the West Bank. Despite the U.S. efforts to achieve this historic milestone, the events since October 7 have hindered this process and put the fate of an Israeli-Saudi peace treaty in question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br><br>Fast-forward to today\u2019s conflict, Donald Trump has been carefully observing the developments unfolding. This issue is also related to the U.S. presidential elections, especially in the state of Michigan. Michigan hosts a significant portion of Arab Americans, who constitute a majority in Dearborn, and is one of the country\u2019s seven essential swing states that play a key role in determining election outcomes. Trump criticized current U.S. President Joe Biden, and later his Vice President Kamala Harris, for their \u201cweak\u201d and \u201cdestabilizing\u201d policies in the region, vowing to end the conflict if elected. On October 26, 2024, he sent a letter to the Lebanese American community, claiming that he aims to achieve not only \u201cequal partnership among all Lebanese communities\u201d but also real and lasting peace in the Middle East. Notably, Trump referred to the word \u201cpeace\u201d seven times, signaling his determination to pursue a comprehensive peace plan in the region. This was reiterated by Dr. Massad Boulos, coordinator of Arab relations for Trump\u2019s campaign, who claimed that the former President \u201cis a man of peace and has shown this during his four years, achieving four peace agreements in the Middle East\u2014a feat not seen since Camp David.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br><br>Despite his stated intent to achieve peace, the means and policies Trump might resort to do not necessarily guarantee this goal anytime soon. He could advocate further escalation, especially between November 6, 2024, and January 20, 2025, before reaching the aforementioned peace, in order to bend the so-called \u201cResistance Axis.\u201d This axis includes Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza, where Tehran\u2019s proxies are active. Severe sanctions, economic pressure, assassinations, and even striking Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities might well be on the table\u2014measures previously endorsed by Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><br>In conclusion, Trump has his eyes on achieving comprehensive peace in the Middle East to add to his previous \u201cachievements.\u201d However, substantial questions remain: Will the \u201cResistance Axis\u201d bend to his aspirations? Will Israel pursue a limited land grab in Gaza and Lebanon for future bargaining, similar to the 1979 \u201cCamp David Accords\u201d? Will Israel sincerely commit to establishing the Palestinian state demanded by Saudi Arabia? Or will it, along with the U.S., rely on Trump\u2019s highly controversial 2020 peace plan? Finally, will Trump achieve the peace he has continuously promised, and at whose expense?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On November 5, 2024, the United States witnessed one of its most decisive elections in history. Not only will it have significant impacts on the American public, but its repercussions will reverberate across much of the world, most notably the Middle East, which has been plunged into devastating and destabilizing events since October 7, 2023. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":37652,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[487],"tags":[608,565],"class_list":["post-37650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-in-depth-en","tag-donald-trump","tag-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arabian Nights Trumpian Days: Trump\u2019s Middle East Playbook 2.0 - Naqd Media<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"the United States witnessed one of its most decisive elections in history. 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